Train Thoughts

I love a good deal.  I bought a new used car because it was such a good deal.  To good to pass up.

Lots of new deal sites are doing incredibly well.  Raking in huge revenue growth because consumers love an offer that is so good.  I was at Costco the other day and saw Johnny Walker Blue on sale for $150, plus a $25 coupon making it an incredible $125 for their top shelf blended scotch whiskey.  I sent a message to two friends asking if they wanted me to pick it up for them.  One said yes, the other had already seen the offer and passed, but it was so good, I stopped in Costco and sent text messages to my friends.

Today, I landed on Groupon for San Francisco and saw an offer for half off a massage at a swanky SF place.  It made me think that the deal is now a commodity.  If I don’t take this offer, I’ll find another one for the same thing soon.  No urgency.

It turns out the deal on my car was a fair price.  If I waited I could find it again.  The deal on the scotch, yeah, that too will be back at Costco for $125.  As a consumer getting overloaded with special deals removes the special part.  Deal sites are doing that for me right now.   It makes me wonder what the longevity of these business models will be.  What does Groupon and Guilt Group look like three years from now?

One of our engineers wants to attend TechCrunch Disrupt.  The $3000 price tag is a bit high for us to send all the people that would want to attend, but I really appreciate a way for people that want to go to Disrupt can go by participating in the hack a thon.

A few people were asking for ideas, so I’m putting out a list of ideas that could possibly be done in an 8 hr period.  I’m not researching the ideas, so they may exist.  They are also aimed to be simple to develop.

1. Should I buy this (I hope someone makes this) Facebook app.  Take a picture of an item with the title, Should I buy this.  Then it has a poll, Yes or No that goes out to your friends.

2.  Sports Score notifications.  I want to be able to follow a game and get a notification everytime a team scores.  I hate checking scores to see that it hasn’t changed so just let me “follow” a game and get updates as they happen.

3.  Netflix New Release App - When movies hit theaters, I want a way to add them to my NF queue if I want to see them.  I rarely make it the the theatre (have little kids) and I feel like I miss adding movies I want to see.

4.  Mortgage Rate Alert.  A simple notification that you can set to let you know if rates hit a certain level.  Most people should refi if they can save over 1pt.  Make it easy for people to know.

5.  You should know this person - Take a picture of a person and send an email to someone introducing them.  So in so, meet so in so.  Make an email template for the intro and fill in basic info.  I do at least two or three intros a week.

6.  Pick this up for me.  Very simple app where you say, pick this up for me, or run this errand.  Anyone can claim the task and do it for a small fee.

7.  Concerts I want to see.  Make a list of the people you want to see in concert and get a notification if they are ever close to you.

8.  Receipt filer.  Take a picture of a receipt and file it, plus put it into a expense report and email it to the right person.  Expense reports stink.

9.  Business cards.  Take a picture of a business card and have it turned into a contact.

10.  Automatic Itinerary to block off time on your calendar while you travel.  When you book a flight, you get an email with the dates and time.  Make a way to forward the mail so it blocks the time on your calendar.

Most of these are mobile ideas or notification based ideas and I don’t know if they exist already, but they could be a seed of a useful app to build and who knows, maybe even a company.

We had two neighborhood kids stay the night on Saturday.  The kids were making noise at Mid Night, but eventually everyone went to sleep.  Sunday morning we got up and the first thing Robin asked me to do was fix the dishwasher.  I did it with some help from my dad!

Then we spent the rest of the day eating.  Donuts for breakfast, leftover cold cuts for lunch, and ordered indian for dinner.  The Birchalls, Hilberts, and Johnsons pretty much kicked it all day long as the kids played in the cul-de-sac.  Fantastic Sunday!

I was thinking about retirement and the difference between me and my brother in our careers.  He’s had a successful run at Cisco into senior management and makes a good living.  I left my job at Microsoft, where I made a fine living to start a company.

I took the risk up front of whether I could/can build a successful business that will someday fuel my retirement.  My brother focused on growing his career at Cisco.  His bet is his career will continue to progress and he’ll have long term employment until he retires.  There is of course middle ground here.

He has essentially chosen to defer his risk until his services are nolonger needed (layed off, or fired).  If he makes it to retirement at Cisco he’ll certainly have a good retirement.  If he’s let go before retirement, he’ll need to find another job.  Depending on how long it takes, he made need to dip into savings and that could push out his retirement horizon.

If my business is successful, I presume that I make enough money when we exit that my retirement is secure.  If the outcome is less than this, then I have to make a decision to start a new business or to go work for another company.  Man, that would be tough.

I chewed on this over breakfast and came to the conclusion that I don’t think either option is really more risky than the other, but it comes down to how we as individuals handle navigate risk.  I hedged risk by getting partners and raising money to help with the business.  My brother has developed skills to navigate corporate politics that reduce his risk.

If I were at Cisco without the skills to manage risk there, I would get fired and find myself eating out of the gutter.  My brother might not be equipped to start a business and find himself in the cardboard box next to me.

We all have different skill sets that help us manage risk and reward.  Some people are really good at making the right moves in a big company to remain employed and grow, others will find themselves on the short path out the door.  Either path we choose, like a good portfolio, we need to be re-balancing it as we age with more skills to reduce risk.

Tiger Woods was the ultimate grinder in my opinion.  He would fight, claw, and never lose focus.  Saving a stroke here, making a put there.  In the end it added up to a lot of wins.  Watching him a bit this weekend, it looks like he’s lost that edge.  He’s lost the focus.  If he didn’t say a word, his body language says to me.  I’m pissed.  I’m stressed.  I can do this.  Other shit is on my mind.

To me, he’s just out of balance.  To do an exceptional job, you need a high degree of stability in other parts of your life to focus and grind out the big challenges.  Take your job, like Tiger plays golf.  He’s the world’s best golfer when his home life is stable.  He’s able to devote himself to golf.  He has family responsibilities, but his mental energy is on golf.  All the time.  He may be reading to the kids, but he’s working out his swing in his head.  He may be changing a diaper, but he’s visualizing the contour of the green.

Over the years, I’ve seen some great people start to struggle at work.  Usually something in there life has significantly changed.  They are going through a divorce, dealing with dieing parents, or struggling with drugs.   It’s something that takes away there ability to grind.  To always have that one thing in their mind that they are working on around the clock.

I suspect Tiger will win again if he’s ever able to get back to where golf is the number one thing on his mind.